Hurricane Tobias (2022)
Hurricane Tobias was the most powerful tropical cyclone on record in the Atlantic, as well as the third most intense worldwide, behind 2015's Hurricane Patricia and 1979's Typhoon Tip. Part of the record-breaking 2022 Atlantic hurricane season (which also included multiple other extremely intense tropical cyclones), Tobias was a classic Cape Verde hurricane and the nineteenth storm, fourteenth hurricane, tenth major hurricane and the fourth Category 5 hurricane of the season. Along with that, Tobias was the most destructive tropical cyclone of the season and worldwide, and the deadliest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. A tropical wave emerged off the West coast of Africa and traveled across the Atlantic, changing intensities rapidly. During this phase of its existence, Tobias peaked as a Category 1 hurricane. Once east of the Bahamas, Tobias performed a brief Fujiwhara interaction with the remnants of Tropical Depression Twenty-three. Under extremely favorable conditions, with moisture provided by the remnants of the depression, virtually no wind shear and extremely warm waters, Tobias underwent a period of extremely rapid intensification, the fastest observed worldwide; the storm's winds increased from 65 mph to 190 mph and it's pressure dropped from 991 mbar to 884 in just 4 hours . Tobias further intensified, soon reaching peak intensity with winds of 215 mph and a central pressure of just 874 mbar. It then went on to make landfall on Florida with winds reaching 205 mph. The storm passed over Florida roughly unscathed, and went on to make two more landfalls; one over Louisiana as a Category 5 with winds of 175 mph, and one over Texas as a Category 4 with winds of 150 mph. Afterwards, the storm traveled inland and rapidly dissipated. Tobias made three landfalls during its lifetime, two of those as a Category 5 hurricane. The most destructive effects were felt in Florida, where the storm's powerful winds demolished entire communities and severely damaged many more. At least 48,035 deaths occurred across the US, with around 40,000 from Florida alone. Tobias caused roughly 295 billion dollars in damages, becoming the costliest hurricane and natural disaster on record. Meteorological history ]] On September 2nd, a vigorous tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic from Africa. On the same day, the NHC began monitoring the wave for further development. With favorable conditions ahead, the wave was expected to intensify soon, the only hindrance being wind shear. On September 3rd, the wave passed south of the Cape Verde islands. On the same day, the area of thunderstorms associated with the wave became better organized, and soon coalesced into an area of low pressure. With moderate wind shear ahead, the disturbance initially struggled to developed as it moved westwards. However, on late September 4th, wind shear weakened and the disturbance organized more. This lead to it being upgraded to a tropical depression. As the depression continued steadily moving across the ocean, shear diminished and the depression intensified into a tropical storm on September 5th. It was assigned the name Tobias, the first usage of the name in history. Soon afterwards, Tobias became a low-end hurricane on early September 6th. Almost immediately after becoming a hurricane, Tobias encountered stronger wind shear which exposed the storm's center and Tobias weakened back to a tropical storm. The storm curved slightly northwards, now projected to approach the Bahamas instead of the northern Lesser Antilles. Even after wind shear diminished, cooler waters and dry air ahead of the storm prevented it from reaching hurricane status again. The storm briefly reached hurricane status again on September 8th, before wind shear strengthened and Tobias weakened again. On September 10th, Tobias abruptly moved slightly more north, forecast to pass over the Bahamas. With conditions perfect for development, strengthening was expected, with NHC forecasting that Tobias would become a Category 4 storm and pass south of Florida, possibly landfalling on Florida Keys. A day later, the storm passed north of the Bahamas and entered an area with conditions perfect for development; record warm waters of 41 °C, virtually no wind shear and plenty of moisture provided by the remnants of Tropical Depression Twenty-three. Under these conditions, Tobias began to explosively intensify, as the storm developed a relatively large eye of roughly 28 miles and its central pressure dropped. In just 5 hours, the storm's central pressure dropped from 979 to 912 mb and its winds increased from 70 mph to 165 mph. This set the record for the fastest intensification of a tropical cyclone in 6 hours. Tobias continued explosively deepening for the next few hours. In 6 more hours, the storm's pressure fell to 893 mb and its winds increased to 195 mph, the strongest winds observed in the Atlantic. At around 1:45 AM on September 12th, Tobias reached its peak intensity, with winds of 215 mph; the pressure bottomed out at 874 mb, a measurement which was taken using a dropsonde. This made Tobias the most intense tropical cyclone in the Atlantic in terms of both wind speed and central pressure; in the Western Hemisphere, Tobias was the second most intense tropical cyclone, trailing only Hurricane Patricia of the 2015 Pacific hurricane season. Soon after reaching peak intensity, Tobias weakened slowly. At around 12:30 PM on September 12th, Tobias made landfall near Cape Canaveral, Florida with sustained winds of 205 mph and a central pressure of 877 mb; both values constituted a worldwide record. The storm made two more landfalls in quick succession: at 12:40 PM over southern Merritt Island, and at roughly 12:55 PM between Cocoa and Port St. John. Both of those landfalls were with winds of 200 mph. Over land, Tobias weakened rapidly. The storm's pressure rose up to 909 mb, and its winds decreased to 155 mph. The storm moved off coast of Florida on September 13th, when it began intensifying again, albeit at a slower rate. The storm's gale wind radius expanded to over 380 miles, as the storm underwent a second eyewall replacement cycle. Tobias ultimately reached its secondary peak intensity on September 15th, with winds of 185 mph and a central pressure of 891 mb. As it approached land again, interaction with it weakened the storm slightly. Soon after, Tobias made landfall on Louisiana with winds of 175 mph and a central pressure of 901 mb, its eye passing close to New Orleans. This landfall ultimately weakened the storm below Category 5 status, and when it moved over sea again, Tobias bore winds of 145 mph. Under slightly stronger wind shear, the storm strengthened very slowly, reaching its third and final peak of 150 mph. At this intensity, the powerful cyclone made landfall on Texas on September 16th. Instantly after landfall, the storm began weakening as it curved northwards, passing directly over the city of Houston. Tobias weakened below major hurricane status on the same day and turned extratropical on September 17th. The storm's barely recognizable remnants dissipated over Texas on September 18th. Preparations The Bahamas Florida Lousiana Texas Elsewhere Impact The Bahamas Tobias passed north of the Bahamas at peak intensity. It never made landfall on the island chain, however gale force winds reached as far as Great Exuma due to the storm's large size. Even though Tobias' peak winds of 210 remained off-shore, certain portions of the Bahamas sustained wind-speeds as high as 190 mph (305 km/h), which caused extreme damage to hundreds of structures. Tobias knocked out the power to most of the northern islands of the country. At the height of the storm, over 300,000 people were without access to electricity. The storm brought massive storm surges and waves to the northern islands. On the island of Abaco, a 30 ft (9,1 m) storm surge submerged the entire Cooper's Town, killing 21 people who refused to evacuate. Powerful winds demolished buildings, downed trees and destroyed vehicles in Marsh Harbour, killing 7 people after their house collapsed on them. Another man died when a tree fell on his house, crushing him. Multiple more people died when their cars got swept away into the sea or off the road. On the northernmost island of the Bahamas, the Grand Bahama, Tobias caused the worst damage of all areas in the Bahamas. A privately-owned anemometer recorded sustained 1-minute winds of 137 mph before being swept away. The same anemometer recorded a peak wind gust of over 219 mph just a few minutes prior. Tobias caused catastrophic damage in the city of Freeport, which was described as "90% destroyed". Tobias' extreme winds flattened trees and houses with the force of an EF4 tornado, ripped power poles out of the ground and tossed cars around. Entire blocks were completely leveled, leaving nothing but piles of debris. Despite the fact that the city is on the southern shore of the Grand Bahama, a 36 ft (10.9 m) storm surge swept through it, causing devastating flooding. Over 400 people died in Freeport alone. The Grand Bahama reported the worst damage, with most of the trees on the island uprooted, many towns and cities severely damaged, and over 500 people killed. All in all, Tobias caused over 600 deaths and as much as 3 billion dollars of damage on the island country. Tobias was one of the deadliest and costliest hurricanes on record for the Bahamas. It took over 10 years for some areas to recover. United States Tobias made its first landfall on Florida near peak intensity, causing extreme damage to the state. Later, it made its second landfall on Louisiana as a Category 5, and a final third landfall on Texas as a Category 4 storm. Overall, damage in the United States totaled to around 290 billion dollars, which made Tobias the costliest tropical cyclone ever recorded. Florida Making its initial landfall on the Brevard County, Tobias caused catastrophic damage and loss of life in its landfall area. On Merritt Island, the storm completely destroyed all but 7 structures located on the island, with 68 fatalities reported. The low death toll was attributed to the fact that most people on the island evacuated prior to the storm's arrival. The Kennedy Space Center sustained massive damage, with sections of the Crawlerway washed away and many of the buildings in the complex destroyed. The Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area was one of the hardest-hit areas by the storm. An estimated 85% of homes within the three cities were completely ruined, while the rest sustained various degrees of damage. 639 people died in Titusville, 472 in Melbourne and 1,297 in Palm Bay, while 583 perished in all the other cities within the metropolitan area. At least 350 deaths from Titusville occurred when the gym of Titusville High School collapsed, killing most of the people who sought refuge in the seemingly sturdy building. Storm surge levels of 38 feet were recorded in Titusville, which is the highest ever recorded in the United States, as well as the 2nd highest in the world, just behind Cyclone Mahina. Orange County was the most heavily affected area in Florida. Strong sustained 1-minute winds of 185 mph (295 km/h), gusting up to 220 mph affected much of the southern Orange County, including parts of the city of Orlando, which was the most heavily affected city. Elsewhere, storm surge levels of 10 feet was recorded in Biscayne Bay. Parts of Miami Beach flooded due to the storm surge. Minor flooding was also reported as far south as Elliot Key, which reported storm surge values of 5-7 feet. Orlando Orlando was heavily affected, as rainfall-induced flooding caused many of the city's lakes to overflow, resulting in heavy flooding. The highest recorded rainfall total within the city was 47.98 inches of rain, of which 39.98 fell within 12 hours. In some areas, the flooding was 1-2 meters deep. In addition to flooding, powerful winds caused massive structural damage to dozens of buildings. The single deadliest incident was the catastrophic collapse of the 55 West apartment tower, resulting in the deaths of 1,387 people who were taking shelter within the building. The collapse was a result of 2 things - major damage to the first floor after it was first gutted by floodwaters, and the heavy damage as a result of debris tossed into the building by the strong winds. Wind damage was also the result of Walt Disney World to be destroyed. Several theme parks were reported completely obliterated or suffered major damage. Storm surge gutted some theme parks, which led to their demise. This is also the third time in recorded history that Walt Disney World was closed due to a tropical cyclone. In addition to the 55 West tower, the winds destroyed many small family homes on the outskirts of the city. At least 19,298 deaths were reported in the city, and damage rose to at least $80 billion dollars. In total, over 40,000 people were killed, and damage within Florida rose to $145 billion, making Tobias the costliest natural disaster ever in Florida, ahead of Hurricane Irma's cost ($50 billion) and Hurricane Andrew's cost ($25 billion 1992 USD, $65 billion adjusted for inflation). TBD Lousiana and Effects of Hurricane Tobias in New Orleans After Hurricane Tobias moved away from Florida, it weakened to a Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 155 mph and a pressure of 917 mbar. The storm soon gained strength over the Gulf of Mexico and reintensified into a Category 5 hurricane. Tobias made landfall near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana, with winds of 175 mph and a pressure of 901 mbar. The storm lingered around the Louisiana coast until it moved ashore in Texas. Areas in Plaquemines Parish saw catastrophic damage. Almost all of the town's in southern Plaquemines Parish was destroyed. Storm surge was recorded at 25 feet, the highest ever seen from any hurricane in Louisiana since Hurricane Katrina. Tobias was also the first Category 5 Atlantic hurricane to ever strike Louisiana since 1780. New Orleans, although was away from the eye, still felt the affects of Hurricane Tobias. Storm surge around 20 feet pushed into Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain. Levee failures on the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet, Industrial Canal, Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, the Funnel, and the London Avenue Canal caused most of eastern New Orleans to flood. The entire 9th Ward, East New Orleans, and St. Bernard Parish flooded. Sustained winds in New Orleans peaked at 141 mph, while the peak wind gust was recorded at 198 mph, which resulted in wind damage in the French Quarter and areas of Downtown New Orleans. Areas along the Louisiana Gulf Coast felt the affects of Hurricane Tobias. Category 4 winds were still recorded along the coastline, which was the main cause of the damage. However, Southwestern Louisiana, especially in Cameron County, recorded storm surge levels of 17 feet, which submerged coastal towns. Hurricane Tobias wrought $65 billion in damage, most of which was resulted due to the levee failures in New Orleans. 3,308 died in Louisiana, making Hurricane Tobias the deadliest and most intense storm to strike Louisiana in recorded history, as well as the costliest since Hurricane Katrina. Texas Hurricane Tobias made it's final landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 150 mph and a pressure of 924 mbar. It was the most intense storm to ever strike Texas since Hurricane Carla, and is the 2nd most intense storm to ever strike Texas, just behind Hurricane Shary of the same year. Storm surge levels were recorded at 20 feet in Galveston Bay. The Bolivar Peninsula was leveled due to the storm surge and high winds; almost every building along the Peninsula was destroyed or heavily damaged. Storm surge values were recorded as far south as Corpus Cristi. Over 50% of Galveston was destroyed; storm surge levels were at a record high of 20 feet; the highest ever seen in Galveston since Hurricane Ike. Wind damage was also the primary cause for the damage wrought in Houston, Port Arthur, and other cities along the Texas coastline. Damage in Texas was at $136 billion, with the death toll placed at 2,685. The storm was the costliest in the state's history, as well as the 2nd deadliest just behind the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. Elsewhere Hurricane Tobias caused minor storm surge in Georgia. Storm surge levels around 6 feet was recorded, which resulted in minor flooding in coastal communities. Parts of Savannah, Georgia, reported minor flooding. Hurricane Tobias was also the result of 65 tornadoes spawning in the Southeastern United States. An EF3 tornado was reported in Little Rock, Arkansas. Other tornadoes were also spotted in Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and other states. A total of 34 people died due to the tornadoes caused by Hurricane Tobias. Heavy rain was reported in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama, which caused flash floods within those states. Flash flooding was reported near the Mississippi River, which resulted to 20 deaths due to the floods. Aftermath United States The Bahamas Criticism of NHC's forecasting Due to Tobias’s unprecedented rate of intensification, many people living in the landfall area in Florida were unable to evacuate from the storm, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths in the state alone. This, combined with the hurricane’s sudden turn to the northwest, led to intense criticism of the National Hurricane Center, NOAA, and the National Weather Service, for underestimating the storm’s strength and track in its forecasts, with the hashtag #TobiasGate becoming popular on social media following the hurricane. One of the most infamous examples was from U.S. President Donald J. Trump, who tweeted, “My Mar-a-Lago resort is totally swamped over, and it’s all because of the FAILING #NHC‘s weak forecasting for Tobias!” After Tobias passed over Florida, thousands of protesters gathered outside NHC headquarters in Miami and called for improved forecast accuracy, with some even calling for NHC officials to resign. Numerous smaller protests also took place near NWS offices in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas in the aftermath of the storm. On September 15, the National Hurricane Center issued a statement defending its predictions for Tobias, saying that forecasters had absolutely no idea that Tobias would become such an extremely powerful storm at a rate “previously thought to be impossible in nature”, and that if it weren’t for human-driven global warming, Tobias would have been weaker and would have caused much less damage. This statement immediately drew harsh backlash against the NHC, with many calling the initial statement “weak”. Intense criticism continued, and by the end of the month, several high-profile officials had resigned amid the scandal, including senior hurricane specialist Lixion Avila and FEMA deputy administrator Joseph Nimmich. Finally, on October 2, the National Weather Service and the NHC issued a joint statement offering their “most sincere apologies” for their poor forecasting of the storm, including the NHC’s first statement. The agencies admitted that they failed to take into consideration many environmental factors during Tobias’s development; they also reinforced the fact that not all of their forecasting was guarenteed to be precise, citing the earlier failure of models to predict Hurricane Sandy’s landfall in New Jersey in 2012. The NWS and NHC announced in the statement that they will work harder in the future to make sure that a forecasting disaster like Tobias was likely to not happen again. Following the release of this statement, protests and criticism began to dwindle down and came to an end by November. Over the next few years, NOAA began an ambitious coalition with meteorological agencies around the world to upgrade forecasting technology following Hurricane Tobias. This included the drastic increase in federal funding towards NOAA, the NWS, and FEMA, but more importantly a massive overhaul in the power and efficiency of computer models, speedier communication between forecasting centers and the mainstream media, and the launch of a new generation of weather satellites into Earth orbit. Records and naming Category:Atlantic hurricanes Category:Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes Category:Deadly storms Category:Destructive storms Category:Tropical cyclones Category:Intense Storms Category:Florida Hurricanes Category:Storms that made landfall Category:Prism55Writes Category:2022 Atlantic hurricane season (Prism55) Category:Stronger Than Hurricane Wilma